WordPress is, frankly, very good – the focus on the user experience helps make it so, even if architecturally it has its limitations.  This has led to stellar success for the platform and is a credit to everyone involved.

A WP distro could have a different logo...

However, over the past year or so there have been a number of controversies – there was the pulling of themes from the WordPress.org repository if there was even a hint of its author profiting from non GPL themes – even if the profiting was just from an affiliate link.  Then there’s the airbrushing out of Edublogs’ and WPMU.org’s links from various official WordPress pages.

This has caused some friction in the WordPress based industry.  Folk just don’t know what’s happening.  In part that could be seen as being a problem caused by differences in business needs and approaches.  Ultimately, Matt Mullenweg is the leader of both the open source WordPress application, and the leader of Automattic.  The latter is a commercial company, funded with a significant amount of venture capital.  It has to make money.  It also funds a lot of WP development, releases a lot of code, and evangelises the product.  But what we do all have to accept is that Automattic’s business needs are not necessarily the same as every other business in the WordPress market.

Automattic are Good for Us

Yes, they are.  All of us running businesses based around WP benefit from their input.  Automattic also benefits when we contribute themes, plugins and so on.

Thing is, it’s not their job to run our business for us.  The relationship between your WordPress business and Automattic is actually pretty loose.  They’re happy for you to run whatever business you like around the product – and if they like you, they may even promote you a little.  Their choice.  If they stop promoting you, then that’s actually just tough.  I whinged about this when it happened a year ago, but after quite a long e-mail exchange with Matt himself, and then even meeting him in person, I started to realise that I had no particular right to expect favours from him or his company. If I wanted promotion from him, I had to make him happy. We changed approach, he promoted us. Simple.

Add Value to Extract Value

In developing an awesome theme or plugin, whether GPL or not, you add some value to the WordPress ecosystem.  Just a little, but it’s there.  But you’ve probably extracted at least as much already.  So don’t pat yourself on the back too hard.

What you need to do is to do things that Automattic won’t or can’t do.  And for that, I’m thinking distributions.  Bundled up, pre-configured editions of WordPress that have all the plugins and configurations that are required for specific purposes.

Some of what we’ve developed is very specific to the News & Media industry.  If we release a suite of plugins to the WordPress.org repository and people download them individually they may not work in a way that would be expected.  Instructions could help, but in effect you’re asking a user to build up their own site.  People don’t want to do that.  It’s complicated and demands a good understanding of the system, the plugins, and the dependent themes.

It’s About Making it Easy

In Linux, there is still something of a perception that it’s a DIY system.  And really, that was the case in the early days – you took the Kernel, added whatever bits you needed, and you were off.  It was basic, a little clunky, but very flexible.  However, most people’s needs are generally fairly similar.  Corporates have one set of needs, people with old machines another, private users another again and so on.

What happened to address this, and where the real value in Linux came, was when other companies started to build businesses around specialist distributions.  RedHat has their distributions, which do well in the corporate and web serving sphere.  Ubuntu is doing fabulously well on the smaller user desktop.

These distributions make life easier for users and clients because they know their needs, and then it’s just a case of finding the nearest match.  Linux is not the answer to their problems – the bundled up solutions are the answer.  You can then issue packages of software designed for those distributions.

It’s About Business

Ultimately, we all need to succeed in order to invest in our businesses and feed ourselves.  We can enjoy coding for pleasure, but you can’t enjoy it if your house is unheated and your children going out in bare feet.  There’s a myth in some sectors of the GPL industry that it’s all about giving stuff away.  It’s not – a lot about the GPL is actually about helping fellow developers to run their businesses.  Coders have shared code freely for years – the GPL is just a formalisation of the developer’s mindset.

How it Could Work With WordPress

With WordPress, there isn’t much money to be made in plugins right now.  Themes have done a little bit better, but they’re a more consumer oriented product which suit certain purposes.  Sometimes the themes bundle plugins to help things along.  Sometimes they don’t.  But the business behind all of these is based purely on supporting the theme.  For everything else, the consumer is on their own.  Worse still, if they use a suite of plugins (premium or otherwise) they may have to deal with various entities in order to get support.  It’s a nightmare for a company where complexity in products is undesirable.

What many companies really just want is simplicity.  Money isn’t necessarily the problem.  They’re running businesses worth millions or even billions.  If a core component of that business (a website, an intranet, whatever) fails or leaves them stranded then they have big big problems.

Create Confidence

So what I believe will come is a marketplace where some companies will offer WordPress distributions suited to particular tasks.  Some will be for heavy marketing, others high-profile bloggers, and so on.  Each will have different minimum server specifications, come with support packages, and will provide a one-stop-shop.  Each plugin will have been tested in that combination, and they will all be supported by the distributor.

Plugin authors will benefit too – a company using a plugin as a core part of their business will gain from keeping that plugin developer happy.  Money will flow (trust me on this!) and when new requirements are identified they will pass this on to the plugin developer, along with the funds to pay for it.

Theme developers will be mixed – the best developers will simply create frameworks, with a base styling, for given purposes.  Designers will then be freed of almost all coding needs and will simply put together a nice child theme.  I anticipate that there will be three or four frameworks coming to the fore, with three or fore distributions offering different variations of framework – all carefully selected for the job.

Costs

These distributions and their support packs won’t be cheap (although for some the downloads could be free).  But they will be dependable.  You will find distributions of WordPress for high security blogs, brochure sites, news sites, membership sites and so on.  No more worrying about plugin interactions, and upgrades will be simpler because all plugins, frameworks and the distribution will upgrade all at the same time.  Your life will become easier.

Impacts

WordPress.org will continue to be the central point for the project, and it will be the reference point.  Distributions will most certainly contribute to the product to help keep their businesses going.  A fork is unlikely happen – not unless the differences in need between the source project and the distributions diverge dramatically.

Companies will be able to base their businesses on distributions which best suit their needs.  If you’re specialising in Intranets, then use the WP Intranet distro.  If you specialise in hardened sites for governments, use the WP Ultra-Secure distro.  This will help companies.

Similarly, if you’re a theme developer, you may wish to actively support distributions that are particularly suited to your style.  And you’ll know what plugins and widgets will be included by default, so you can included styling for those too.

And different distributions will have different cultures and attitudes.  Some will be more favourable to non-GPL publishers, and others much more hardline.  Some will create courses, certifications, books and support infrastructures while others will be more casual.

In the long run, WordPress has great potential as a publishing and communication tool – it does some things so right, so easily, that so long as this principle of simplicity is adhered to then there will be business opportunities surrounding it.  There’s no point getting into arguments with Automattic or Matt – just get on with it and find places to add value.  The risks may be higher, but that will mean the rewards will grow too.  Think about it.

What Do You Think?

Is this likely to be the way forward for WordPress based businesses?  Will it confuse users?  Could it make things better?  Comments, please!

But what happens if our clients and potential clients start to suffer as a consequence of an economic downturn?

Problem 1 – Spending Cutbacks

During uncertain times, many businesses choose to be careful on spending outside of their company.  In particular they may look to what are perceived as cost centres (website updates, build and application development) as being something that can wait for a while.  If that’s the case, there’s going to be a slowdown in spending on technology unless it’s deemed as essential for the company to operate.

Problem 2 – Credit Freezes

Thankfully we’re based in the North of England – this is an area which is traditionally very conservative with money.  People don’t like to borrow money or use complex financial instruments and most SMEs in the North West still tend towards being self-financed.  However, this article’s aimed at everyone.  Business that rely on finance will face certain problems.  In particular, curiously, the ones that have a moderate but high risk position are the ones who face the biggest chance of foreclosure.

Why?  Well it’s time to think like a banker.

Example 1: This business has loans of £100,000, assets of only about £30,000, and sales have plummeted.  However, the business is still viable if it can renegotiate its loan terms.

If the bank decides to close this company it will definitely lose £70,000.  In renegotiating the loan the business will continue to  function, and the bank will get its money, albeit over a longer period.

Example 2: Another business has been far more careful with its money and has a £30,000 loan with assets of £100,000.  However, sales have died due to the downturn and income is poor.  They too need a renegotiation as their cashflow situation makes it impossible to meet the loan payments.

In this case the bank, needing to bring in money to improve its cash position, will be less inclined to renegotiate.  After all, if it closes the loan it will get everything back – the full £30k.  Their cash position is improved and everyone’s happy.  The business may struggle now because it’s now £30k down on cashflow.  In fact, it could even fold because suddenly there’s no cash left in the company to help pay its wages and bills.  Worse, it can’t even negotiate a loan against its assets because all the banks are being ultra-cautious, will take one look at the cashflow problems and decide to look for someone safer to lend to.

You also have to think very carefully about any secured loans.  In the event of a repossession it’s possible for the bank to get everything.  They may repossess your premises and resell them at a significant profit.  In many jurisdictions there’s no compulsion for them to share or give the profit to the original debtor.

Problem 3 – Price Inflation

Inflation is pretty steady in the UK still.  But we still have one massive problem – we’re starting to sell internationally.  Countries that trade internationally in dollars will have found their costs rising dramatically when dealing with EU based economies.  It’s not that long ago since a British pound was worth $1.5 – yet now it buys $2.  But thankfully there’s an upside – the more steady, more sensible and less loan happy mainland Europeans have found their Euro increasing dramatically in value.  It makes our holidays to Europe more pricey, but the upside is that our services look a lot cheaper to Europeans – so as one market declines, another has grown.

But it’s not all bad….

Opportunity 1 – Competitive Pressure

Businesses that are struggling will need to fight to compete.  No longer will money simply roll through the door as naturally as leaves through a courtyard.  Instead some firms which have experienced an easy ride lately with their easy finance, will need to get out there and find customers.  They’re going to need to invest in technologies that help push them up ahead of the competition.  This is where there could be some real growth in the web technology market – at least, for the companies that can give the best results.

Opportunity 2 – People With Time

If there is a downturn it’ll mean more people with less work to do – perhaps not needing to work so many hours, or even higher levels of unemployment.  For them the web will be one of the cheaper forms of entertainment available to them.  They’ll be getting into blogging, Web 2.0 applications such as Facebook, and even maybe dabbling a little and learning how to code themselves.  They’ll help the market to grow and will be enthusiasts for the business in the future.

Opportunity 3 – Weak Rivals Will Decline

One of the best things about a recession can be that the really weak rivals will suffer.  Web designers, for example, who churn out poorly thought out and over-priced websites will find themselves at a disadvantage to those with a reputation for positive results.  They’ll either have to reposition themselves more truthfully (at the economy market perhaps) or spend some time improving.  It’s also worth looking out for closing companies and seeing if you can pick up their past clients.  Filling a dead-man’s boots may not seem too ethical, but chances are it’ll be a relief for those clients to know there’s still someone around who they can rely on.

Actually, I’ll rephrase it a little… it happens all the time!

It’s rather tricky. Clients are interested in us because we offer them something that gives them better efficiency, sales and returns. But what we do is complex and sophisticated.

As it’s myself that does all the sales work I often find myself giving over two hours of my time to a prospect in order to explain how the dynamic websites work. I’m educating them. For two hours.

How much would it actually cost to get an expert in any field to educate someone for that period of time on a one-to-one basis? £120? £240? Certainly it wouldn’t be cheap.

Yet there I am, explaining various elements of design, hosting and development… all for free.

Not only that, but many clients expect proposals, complete with mockups. For free too, of course. After all, we’re only selling.

And it’s a trap I think that all IT types need to be wary of. We’re natural born ‘pleasers’. We want to write cool stuff, but more importantly, we want people to acknowledge that coolness. It’s interesting that the concept of Open Source is so strong in IT. There aren’t nearly so many top photographers offering any of their materials with a right to free duplication as there are developers.

But here’s the thing… free doesn’t put food in the table. Each prospect may be the result of two hours of work before we even get to visit. On top of that is the two hours of free consultancy they end up receiving when we go and see them. Then there’s the proposal – that can be four hours for something simple, but easily a 16hr job. So we have up to 20hrs per prospect, before a sale is even agreed.

If we then assume a one-in-three conversion (because they’ll probably talk to three potential clients) that means up to 60hrs of work for each client won. I’ve actually estimated that by and large we manage on about 40hrs per client win.

Now here’s the funny thing – many of the websites we produce take less than 40hrs to build. Let’s say each is 30hrs of work to build – what with all the toing and froing of ideas, images and copy.

That makes 70hrs per website. If you’re going to make a modest, middle class income, and cover costs, then chargeable rates have to be around the £30 an hour mark. That’s about what most backstreet mechanics are charged at. So the very base price for a website built according to expectations above, has to be £2,100.

Read that figure.

£2,100!

For a basic, simple, custom website.

We’re working on developing techniques to get web developers away from this problem. Expectations are far higher than can be fulfilled economically. Check back to the blog regularly to see our up and coming announcements…

But what I do think is that there’s a significant chunk of people out there, with no clue as to the Web, what it’s for, and how it works, who currently seem to be desperate to jump onto the bandwagon. They sometimes actually have some pretty sound business ideas.

Thing is, they turn up at our office with these huge plans. And a budget of £250.

There then follows an awkward silence as we have to explain that £250, like in dentistry, doesn’t really buy you a great deal of cosmetic awe. Even if the underlying software is free, you still need someone with the ability and understanding to implement it correctly. And they’re in demand.

But then that brings up another issue – the one of the wannabe web designer. Very little understanding of the technology or business, but does have a copy of Frontpage, Dreamweaver, or worst of all – Flash and only Flash. And thinks they can design for the web because they’ve done some ok print jobs in their time. They over promise, often raising expectations, under-quote (causing pricing pressure) and under-deliver.

Not all are actually that bad in overall design terms either, but they have a habit of disappearing when things get difficult. If one of their sites is hacked they have absolutely no idea why, and can’t do much about it. They don’t understand what the difference between CHMOD 777 or 766 can mean to the security of their site. In fact, to make their life easier, they simply switch everything to 777. And they’ve got so little money from their £300 job that they most definitely can’t afford to pay a TruePro (my TM, maybe. Perhaps) to come in and get digging, and to configure their site correctly.

And clients sometimes need to accept that they can’t just say “gimme a website!” to a designer/developer and expect them to magically mind-read their true desires. For free, of course.

Thing is – how’s a client to know the difference between a good or bad web company? It’s no easier than knowing the difference between a good or bad engine design in a car. The only way people learn is by watching what or who gets the most reliable, dependable and economical cars out there. And if there are none, then eventually someone will come along and do just that. Like the Japanese did to the British motorbike industry, so, surely, will the good web companies overtake and close down the bad ones.

So to answer my own question – I actually think the web industry does suck right now. But it’ll get better – slowly, top web brands will move to the fore, and the rubbish ones will fade away. And it won’t be from expected sources either. For example, WordPress.com is likely to become a major force for many small business websites, with many moving to self-hosted WordPress sites once they need more control or uniqueness. Why does any startup in a non-tech field need to commission a custom site when there’s plenty of great, free or cheap designs available?

And that’s where the future website designing and hosting brands will come from. The small one man web companies need to adapt to this market and consider that the direct one-to-one model of web design & development is approaching its death knell. Instead, these small companies will become facilitators – finding the best solutions for the non-techie clients, setting them up, and then briskly moving on to the next client. The technical knowhow, fixing up and hacking will be concentrated in key points. They’ll set up or review systems like SugarCRM, Plone, WordPress, and more.

Bigger clients will of course still need their own web applications built to suit any unique business models they operate, and they’ll be able to afford the fact that few of these can ever cost less than five figures. So that business model will continue, and should pay more too as the solutions become critical to firms.

I know I’ve just had something of a ramble there – it’s purely a stream of consciousness thing. I think the web industry is on the verge of maturing. That doesn’t mean the days are over for specialists. Just that the mass market will move to commodity systems, while the specialised stuff will actually start to pay the kind of rewards that should be available to people who work with a difficult and challenging technology.